Let’ remember our dreams! I want to remember these dreams and find out the ways where today’s inventions will become tomorrow innovations.
Dreams of Humanity
Mankind has been trying to look to the future and to predict how it will look like for centuries. Since the Biblical texts and various prophecies we tried to comprehend the coming of humanity. Pragmatists and travelers of the Era of Great Geographical Discoveries were looking for new ways to India, driven by the search for new trade ways, lands and resources. Thus, new continents were discovered, old dogmas collapsed, the world began to change rapidly, it became bigger and closer at the same time.
Contemporaries who read Jules Verne could only dream to dive to the bottom of the ocean, to travel to the center of the Earth or fly round the Earth in 80 days. Let me remind you that he was living in the late 19th century. Industrial revolution with engines, electricity, railroads and telegraph marched on the planet. Cars, airplanes, computers and breakthroughs in medicine were coming. Not so far was the era of first space travellers, personal PCs, mobile devices, Internet. In my post about Adoption of New Technologies I’ve mentioned that new technologies started to come faster and adoption rates have shortened. Many started to speak about singularity (a term firstly was used by John von Neumann).
During the 20th century we were dreaming about new inventions, endeavors, and technologies. This role was “dedicated” to scientists, futurists, science fiction writers and film makers. We were dreaming about flying cars, time machine, teleporting, thinking robots and A.I., cloning, personal space travelling, eternal life and I hope Happy Humanity. I think that the point is that we not only tried to predict where we will be and how the future will look like. But also we created that future in the prophecies, then in the pages of novels, then in numerous laboratory experiments.
Futurism and Foresights Part of the Blog
Now I’m wondering where we are now and where we will be in 10, 20 and 50 years? I need to know this in order:
- to understand my future. How and where I and my children will live.
- to see in which directions science will develop.
- to intuitively apprehend future innovative companies and potential directions where new Fords, GMs, Toyotas, IBMs, Apples, and Googles will appear. Not to forget that in this blog I’m thinking about entrepreneurship, business incubation, and strategy. All this is relevant if you have Big Picture in mind. Business Incubation is only one of possible means how to help future successful companies to find their business models.
Therefore, I want to introduce new part of my blog that will be devoted to Futurism and Foresights.
In this part I will share information and knowledge about or possible future. So, there are three basic types of forecasting I want to look at: extrapolation, modeling, and expertise. But this classification is arbitrary, since predictive models are extrapolation and expertise, the latter are the results of extrapolation and modeling and so on. In forecasting the following methods are used: analogy, induction and deduction, a variety of statistical, economic, sociological, and other methods. Mainly I will pay attention to expertise type of forecasting. That’s why I will share expert opinions, results of analytical researches, and so on. To name these techniques, I mention:
- Collective experts’ foresights;
- Associative modeling techniques;
- Decision trees and scenario analysis;
- Probabilistic modeling;
- The methods of collective idea generation;
- The methods of historical and logical analysis;
- The method of interviews, writing scripts, etc.
Fiction vs Reality and Tomorrow’s World
I would like to start this part of the blog with two colourful pieces of information. The first piece of knowledge is an interesting analysis of what was predicted by science fiction (films and novels) and what happened in reality.
Second infographics was made by BBC Future which has compiled 40 intriguing predictions made by scientists, politicians, journalists, bloggers and other assorted pundits in recent years about the shape of the world from 2013 to 2150.
So, enjoy and good luck!